Arlington, TX — The Dallas Cowboys return to the playoff spotlight this weekend after earning a first-round bye, welcoming the battle-tested Minnesota Vikings to AT&T Stadium for a high-stakes NFC Divisional Round showdown. It’s a rematch of their Season 31 meeting — a 33–20 Dallas win — but the stakes are higher and the pressure greater this time around.
Minnesota, fresh off a road win over the Buccaneers in the Wild Card round, enters as underdogs but not without firepower. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy has been sensational in his third full season as starter, leading the league in touchdown passes (53) and racking up nearly 5,000 yards through the air. “We’ve been through the fire all year,” McCarthy said. “Nobody expected us to get this far — we’re not done yet.”
Dallas, meanwhile, has had the luxury of rest and preparation. With a 14–3 record and a top-five defense, head coach Andres Perez’s squad is poised to make a statement after falling short last postseason. Quarterback Dak Prescott threw for 3,929 yards and 24 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions this year. “We’re locked in,” Prescott told reporters. “We’ve been preparing for this moment since Week 1.”
Strength vs Strength
Dallas brings the league’s 2nd-ranked pass defense (191.6 YPG allowed) into this game, a perfect foil to Minnesota’s 3rd-ranked passing offense (281.9 YPG). The key battle will be how Dallas’s secondary handles McCarthy and his top target, Justin Jefferson, who hauled in 83 receptions for 1,161 yards and 19 touchdowns.
For the Cowboys, it’s about balance. Aaron Jones has quietly put together another productive year with 745 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns. Tight end Luke Schoonmaker has emerged as Prescott’s most consistent target, leading the team with 1,056 receiving yards.
Minnesota’s defense, however, poses a risk — they rank dead last in yards allowed (366.0 YPG), including the league’s worst pass defense. If Dallas can get into a rhythm early, they may control the tempo throughout.
Key Injuries
The Vikings will be without two key starters: tight end T.J. Hockenson (broken hand) and linebacker Nate Landman (broken collarbone). Hockenson’s absence, in particular, limits Minnesota’s versatility in the red zone.
Dallas enters relatively healthy, though they’ll miss right tackle Nathan Thomas (abdominal tear), which could impact their edge protection against Minnesota’s pass rush.
The Vikings will win if…
McCarthy continues his MVP-caliber run and Jefferson can break open Dallas’s defense for explosive plays. Minnesota’s defense will need to play above its metrics — creating turnovers and getting off the field on third downs is non-negotiable. “We’ve been doubted all season,” said Jefferson. “Now it’s time to flip the script.”
The Cowboys will win if…
They do what they’ve done all season — dominate defensively and lean on Prescott to manage the game. If the pass rush can disrupt McCarthy’s timing and they control time of possession through Jones, Dallas will be one step closer to a long-awaited NFC title game.
Final Word
Minnesota is dangerous and fearless, but the Cowboys are rested, talented, and playing at home. The Vikings have the star power to pull off an upset, but Dallas’s depth and discipline give them the edge in a game that could go down to the final quarter.
