HOUSTON, TX — The top-seeded Houston Texans, reigning back-to-back 2K OLF Super Bowl Champions, return to action after a first-round bye, welcoming the surging Pittsburgh Steelers to NRG Stadium for a high-stakes AFC Divisional battle. Despite finishing with the best record in the conference at 15-2, the defending champs limp into the playoffs on a two-game losing streak, creating an air of uncertainty around head coach Sean Nguyen’s squad.
Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin’s Steelers are peaking at the right time. After a Wild Card win over Buffalo, Pittsburgh arrives with momentum and revenge on their mind. The last time these two met was in Week 11 — a narrow 22–18 Texans win in Houston. Expect another grind-it-out affair.
Familiar Foes with New Stakes
Houston took the regular-season meeting thanks to a balanced effort led by their defense and smart decision-making. But since then, the Texans’ aura of invincibility has cracked. Despite ranking #2 in scoring offense (30.2 PPG) and #2 in scoring defense (15.6 PPG allowed), they’ve struggled late, and now must prove they’re ready to reassert dominance.
Quarterback C.J. Stroud had an MVP-caliber year—3,158 yards, 34 touchdowns, and just 3 interceptions—but his health is in question after being listed with an undisclosed injury. If he suits up, he’ll have help from standout back Glenn Wimbley (1,310 yards, 12 TDs) and top target Stefon Diggs, who caught 70 passes for 1,115 yards and 12 scores but is also questionable with a partial ACL tear.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is tough, resilient, and riding a wave of confidence. Quarterback Paul Hayes has managed the offense efficiently (3,149 yards, 20 TDs, 8 INTs), while Jaylen Warren has emerged as a workhorse with 1,235 yards and 8 touchdowns. Tight end Pat Freiermuth adds a reliable red zone presence with 93 catches and 975 yards.
Last Time They Met
Their Week 11 matchup was a battle of attrition. Houston QB Jonathan Walton led the way with 228 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and added another on the ground. Pittsburgh’s defense struggled to contain Walton’s mobility, while Landon Fox led Texans receivers with 66 yards. Though close on the scoreboard, Houston never relinquished control.
This time, Houston will likely lean on a different formula, depending on Stroud’s availability.
Key Injuries
Houston enters with serious question marks. In addition to Diggs and Stroud, they’ll be without safety Calen Bullock (fractured shoulder), edge rusher James Houston IV (broken collarbone), and both left tackles — D.J. Humphries (torn tricep) and Josh Jones (broken ribs). Depth will be tested across the board.
The Steelers are relatively healthy, though linebacker Nick Herbig is out with broken ribs.
The Steelers will win if…
They can control the pace with their ground game and turn this into a low-scoring fight. Hayes must protect the football and make timely throws, while the defense needs to rattle Stroud—or his backup—and generate pressure without blitzing. If they win the turnover battle, Pittsburgh has the grit to pull this off.
The Texans will win if…
Stroud is healthy, and the offense finds rhythm early. Wimbley must be involved from the start, and the defense has to contain Warren. With Diggs banged up, Houston’s depth at receiver and on the offensive line will be crucial. If they play clean and physical, they can weather the Steelers’ storm.
Final Word
The Texans have spent the season dominating opponents—but they now face the pressure of expectations, health concerns, and a Steelers team that thrives in chaos. Houston is the favorite, but Pittsburgh is dangerous. One team will punch its ticket to the AFC Championship. The other will be left wondering what went wrong.
